Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
